October 2, 2026
China remains closed for holiday but the Hang Seng reopened last night and promptly fell 2.6%. The Kospi managed a small gain as South Korea’s inflation print came in a tiny bit softer than expected. The Nikkei on the other hand fell about 1% after Tokyo CPI (a harbinger for the country as a whole) came in much hotter than expected. The headline print was 2.7% while the “core-core” measure jumped to 3% from 2% prior. Maybe the BoJ’s job isn’t done quite yet. European bourses were all in the green today as the decline in oil prices is clearly lifting sentiment. EU Core CPI also came in as expected at 2.5%. The ECB’s Rehn spoke and noted that rising long-term interest rates will slow growth and reduce the pass-through of the energy shock to prices and wages. Sounds like maybe the ECB won’t have to hike as aggressively? Keep an eye on the German-French 10 year yield spread, it continues to widen out, the stress is not over yet. North American stock markets ended the week on a mixed note as cooler-than-expected September jobs data cut Fed rate-hike odds even as Treasury yields climbed, with the 30-year hitting its highest level in decades. The September nonfarm payrolls report came in cooler than economists expected. U.S. employers added just 29K jobs in September, falling well short of the 85K consensus figure and marking a sharp slowdown from August’s downwardly revised gain of 133K. Odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its October 28 meeting collapsed this week after softer payrolls and cooler PCE inflation data landed; the probability of an October hike fell to 18.3% on Friday, down from 24.4% on Thursday and 64.2% a week ago. Furthermore, yields remained at the center of attention as they climbed across the curve, with the longer-end U.S. 30-year Treasury yield topping its highest level since 2002. For the week, the blue-chip Dow fell -1.26%, the benchmark S&P lost -0.27%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed +0.45%.
* Nikkei -0.94%
* Shanghai Golden Week holiday
* Hang Seng -2.60%
* DAX +1.17%
* FTSE +0.32%
* CAC +0.79%
* DJIA +0.49%
* S&P 500 +0.73%
* Nasdaq +1.19%
* Russell 2000 +0.94%
* BSD Global Tech Hedge Fund +0.43%