May 1, 2026

Watershed central bank policy announcements and major corporate quarterly reports drew some focus away from geopolitical events this past week, though the Iran stalemate still simmered in the background. WTI crude was higher on the week, but managed to close off the highs at just under $102/bbl as Iran circulated a new peace proposal on Friday. Details remained sketchy and Trump simply said he wasn’t happy with the proposal, even as reports earlier in the week said the Administration is still mulling new military strikes as it tries to squeeze Iran’s economy. Gold ended down around 2%, pressured by expectations that higher oil prices could keep central banks tighter for longer. The BoE and ECB both issued ‘hawkish hold’ statements, keeping rates steady for now, but eyeing rate hikes in June and beyond. The Fed kept rates on hold as well, maintaining an ‘easing bias’ that drew an extraordinary three dissenting votes, sending a warning shot to incoming Chairman Warsh. Meanwhile the outgoing Jerome Powell announced he would not follow the custom of stepping down from his Board governor seat at the end of his Chairman term, citing the Trump Administration’s ongoing legal efforts to erode Fed independence. Treasury yields peaked on Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC decision, but ended the week only modestly higher, driven partly by the ISM report Friday morning that had prices and employment readings going in the wrong direction. Friday trading was also punctuated by Trump announcing he will raise tariffs on EU automobiles back to 25% from 15%, as the U.S. President and European trade officials accused each other of violating treaties. Trump also tightened sanctions on Cuba as he looked to expand his “Donroe Doctrine” foreign policy narrative. In the FX market, the dollar-yen moved 5 big figures after verbal intervention was quickly followed with actual intervention by Japanese officials perturbed that the Yen continues to flirt with multi-decade levels of weakness. Equities largely ignored all the drama and for the week the S&P gained 0.9%, the DJIA added 0.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. European bourses and Asia Pacific stock markets were mixed last week: the German DAX gained 0.7%, the French CAC 40 slipped 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%, and mainland China rose 0.8%. Your BSD Global Tech Hedge Fund gained 1% this past week. The bulk of the Mag-7 names posted decidedly mixed results amid a heavy earnings calendar this week. Alphabet was the top performer among the megacaps as it beat and raised expectations on the back of 40% q/q growth in Gemini Enterprise. Apple surpassed Wall Street expectations, propelled by strong iPhone 17 demand and services growth. Amazon reported AWS growth of 28%, its best in over three years, driven by high AI demand. Microsoft reported a similar growth rate in its cloud services revenue, but shares fell due to cautious guidance and high capital expenditures. Meta shares were the biggest loser of the group, despite strong quarterly results, as shareholders gasped at another capex raise as Zuckerberg chases his AI dreams. Even as the hyperscalers complained about tight memory markets, Sandisk and Western Digital reported huge earnings beats, and sending their shares to dizzying all-time highs. Outside of high tech, Caterpillar was a standout, crushing estimates and raising its outlook on robust construction and AI-related power demand. Energy majors Exxon and Chevron both announced strong quarterly numbers Friday morning, but shares sagged as investor sentiment seemed to be more closely tied to the vagaries of the conflict in Iran than corporate results reported out of Houston. Airline stocks got a boost on Friday as discount carrier Spirit appeared to be headed for a shut down after bondholders balked at a U.S. government bailout plan.

Wall Street heads into a busy week with investors focused on the April jobs report, a heavy slate of earnings, and key corporate and macro events. The labor market will take center stage Friday, with economists expecting about 49K job additions and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%. Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey will offer insight into credit conditions, while ongoing Fed commentary could shape expectations for policy. Earnings activity is broad-based. Key reports include Palantir, AMD, Arm, Disney, Uber, McDonald’s, and Airbnb. Disney’s results and outlook will be closely watched amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny and streaming trends, while AMD and Arm updates could provide insight into AI demand. Corporate events will also draw attention. Citigroup holds its Investor Day, where management is expected to outline a long-term strategy reset, while IBM’s Think conference and Anthropic’s developer event highlight continued momentum in enterprise AI. Elsewhere, China’s Labor Day holiday is expected to support Macau casino stocks, and OPEC production data will remain in focus. The Eurozone will also release its share of new data, including the Eurozone PPI and PMIs. Euro traders should also watch Thursday’s retail sales and key speeches from Madame Lagarde, as they could either confirm or deter the current pricing for rate hikes at the upcoming meeting (June 11).

Our BSD Global Tech Hedge Fund holds an 8% cash position and a stock portfolio that is 92% invested across two dozen tech vendors and tech end users. This portfolio is hedged with a 25% short equity index against the notional value of the invested stock portfolio. This hedge will incrementally grow (from the laddered Nasdaq put options strategy) if the stock market comes under pressure.